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Mesoscale Discussion 490
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0490
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1252 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

   Areas affected...Northeastern Virginia...southern Maryland...and the
   District of Columbia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 221752Z - 221945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts will be possible with stronger storms
   this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A relatively cloud-free area on visible satellite
   imagery has been persistent throughout the morning into early
   afternoon. This has allowed surface temperatures to rise into the
   mid- to upper-70s. With ample surface moisture -- dewpoints
   generally in the mid- to upper-60s -- MLCAPE values are currently
   near 1000 J/kg. With time, continued surface heating should further
   destabilize the area. Shear values are relatively modest with values
   between 25-30 kts; however, particularly in areas that receive the
   most insolation, low-level lapse rates may support damaging wind
   gusts. Visible satellite imagery indicates weak convection occurring
   to the west of the discussion area. These storms should intensify as
   they move into a move favorable environment east of the
   Appalachians.

   ..Wendt/Elliott/Weiss.. 05/22/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   38317897 38907871 39117819 39107730 38697638 38207605
               37767622 37587652 37237696 37197806 37427907 37707924
               38317897 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2018
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