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Mesoscale Discussion 492
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0492
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

   Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...Far West Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221956Z - 222230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat will continue to develop across
   eastern New Mexico and into far west Texas this afternoon. Hail and
   strong gusty winds will be possible but weather watch appears
   unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows south to
   southeasterly flow across southeast New Mexico. A corridor of
   enhanced low-level convergence is present near the Sacramento
   Mountains in south-central New Mexico. Surface dewpoints to the east
   of this area are in the lower 60s F and the RAP is analyzing
   moderate instability with MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. In
   addition, forecast soundings late this afternoon near Alamogordo, NM
   show 0-6 km shear around 30 kt with some directional shear in the
   lowest 2 km AGL. This along with steep low-level lapse rates could
   be enough for a marginal wind damage threat. Hail will also be
   possible within the better-developed cores.

   ..Broyles/Weiss.. 05/22/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   35380557 34870575 34180579 33290567 32220569 31420542
               31120503 31060406 31360335 33050308 35690330 35940460
               35380557 

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