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Mesoscale Discussion 498
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0498
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0314 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

   Areas affected...Northern Texas and southeast Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 032014Z - 032215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
   across north Texas and south-central Oklahoma between 5-7 PM CDT.
   These storms will pose a risk for large hail and a few tornadoes. A
   watch is likely by 21 UTC.

   DISCUSSION...Surface observations from north TX and southern OK
   reveal a surface low northeast of Abilene, TX with a stalled cold
   front draped to the southwest and a dryline extending to the south.
   To the northeast of this low, a stationary front is noted across
   southern to northeast OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows a
   shallow, but growing, cumulus field west of the DFW metro into
   southeast OK east of the stationary boundary. A 19 UTC FWD sounding
   shows considerable MLCIN remains in place, and should keep
   convection at bay in the near term. However, continued diurnal
   heating and increasing ascent over the region (due to the approach
   of an upper-level wave from the west) will help erode lingering
   inhibition by the 5-7 PM CDT time frame. Deep-layer shear is
   forecast to increase as stronger flow associated with the synoptic
   trough moves over the region, which will support initially discrete
   cells along the dryline and stationary boundary. Steep mid-level
   lapse rates noted in the 19 UTC FWD sounding and dewpoints
   increasing into the upper 60s/low 70s will support MLCAPE values
   near 3000-4000 J/kg. 

   Consequently, severe hail appears likely and a few instances of
   large (2+") hail are probable with any initial discrete storms. The
   KFWS VWP recently observed around 100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, which may
   support at least a low-end tornado threat across north TX. The
   tornado threat will likely be higher along the Red River and
   northward into south/southeast OK in the vicinity of the triple
   point and along the stationary boundary where more backed low-level
   winds are noted and environmental vertical vorticity is higher.
   Although the potential for a few tornadoes exists with any initial
   discrete convection, rapid upscale growth is possible within an hour
   or two after initiation, and may limit the overall tornado
   potential. Nonetheless, a tornado watch is likely by 21 UTC.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 05/03/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32349878 33399800 34149751 34849731 35219655 35269553
               34959507 34309498 33569502 32899532 32439620 31919717
               31539805 31409867 31639898 32349878 

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Page last modified: May 03, 2021
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