|Mesoscale Discussion 506|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0506
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018
Areas affected...NE Panhandle....West-central
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117...
Valid 240128Z - 240300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117
SUMMARY...Potential for damaging wind gusts and hail will persist
across the remaining portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117.
Convective trends will be monitored closely to determine the need
for a downstream watch.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing supercell in Oglala Lakota county is strongest
storm of day across the region thus far. Recent MRMS MESH suggests
hail around 3 inches possible with this storm. Large hail will
remain possible with this storm during the next hour or so before a
transition to a more linear mode reduces the potential for very
large hail. Recent reflectivity surge northeastward as well as the
influence of the approaching line segment farther southwest and
interaction with an outflow boundary suggest upscale growth is
probable with this currently discrete storm.
To the south/southeast of this storm (i.e. across west-central NE),
convection has recently increased along a residual outflow boundary
in Cherry and Grant counties while the supercell that recently moved
through Garden county appears to have become more outflow dominant.
All of these signs point toward eventual cool pool amalgamation and
eventual upscale growth into a linear MCS.
However, the downstream airmass will soon experience nocturnal
stabilization and there is some question as to whether or not the
MCS will be strong/mature enough to produce damaging wind gusts in
the resulting stable low-level environment. Even if damaging wind
gusts are not realized, steep mid-level lapse rates, sampled well by
regional 00Z soundings, and increasing low-level flow will remain
supportive of severe hail. Convective trends will be monitored
closely to determine the need for a downstream watch.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 42240409 43560354 44540104 44329968 42689943 41380102
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