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Mesoscale Discussion 516
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0516
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021

   Areas affected...southeastern Missouri...southern
   Illinois...southwestern Indiana...eastern Arkansas...western
   Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 040606Z - 040800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe risk will gradually increase across Mid Mississippi
   and lower Ohio Valleys, as convection expands/spreads eastward.  A
   WW will be required.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a large MCS -- comprised of a
   well-organized bowing band of storms moving eastward across northern
   and central Arkansas, and several smaller clusters of intense
   convection to the southwest.

   Ahead of the convection, a very unstable airmass -- characterized by
   mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg -- exists, in advance of the
   cold front crossing Missouri/Oklahoma/eastern Texas at this time. 
   As this front -- and the associated upper trough crossing
   Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas -- progress, risk for damaging winds and hail
   will spread across the Mid Mississippi Valley area, with convective
   intensity aided by stronger flow spreading across the region ahead
   of the upper system.  With the Arkansas bowing segment nearing
   northeastern portions of WW 137, a new watch -- across the lower
   Ohio Valley area and adjacent portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley
   -- will be needed within the next hour.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/04/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...

   LAT...LON   37109069 37639053 38248865 38268724 37498709 35328772
               34898898 34949019 34969162 37109069 

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Page last modified: May 04, 2021
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