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Mesoscale Discussion 518
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0518
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0117 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021

   Areas affected...portions of southern and western Kentucky into
   northern Middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 040617Z - 040815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms -- capable of producing hail up to
   about 1.5" in diameter -- will continue over the next couple of
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar data shows scattered thunderstorms which
   have gradually increased in coverage over the past 1 to 2 hours from
   western Kentucky into northern Middle Tennessee.  The storms are
   occurring within an area of weak QG forcing ahead of a subtle vort
   max crossing the area, aided by substantial elevated CAPE/steep
   mid-level lapse rates.  Moderate flow aloft is sufficient for
   isolated stronger updrafts, and while the elevated nature of the
   convection suggests only limited wind risk, large hail will remain
   possible with stronger cells.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/04/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

   LAT...LON   36938430 35908488 36268575 36768762 37428772 37828732
               37688614 36938430 

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Page last modified: May 04, 2021
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