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Mesoscale Discussion 519
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0519
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0241 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

   Areas affected...Much of western Oklahoma into northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 251941Z - 252215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...At least a few severe storms capable of very large hail
   and damaging wind are expected to develop by 22-23Z.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a dying outflow boundary from
   northwest TX into the eastern TX Panhandle. Strong heating continues
   on both sides of the boundary, and surface winds remained
   southeasterly and backed relative to areas to the west. Meanwhile, a
   weak surface low was located across northwest OK, with a low
   pressure trough generally extending southwestward into the South
   Plains.

   The outflow may have caused some degree of drying of the air mass
   emanating out of OK. However, GPS water vapor sensors indicate only
   a slight drop in overall moisture content on the cool side of the
   boundary, and, surface dewpoints continue to rise. Therefore, MLCAPE
   values of 2000-3000 J/kg appear reasonable given the very steep
   lapse rates aloft and strong heating.

   Although surface convergence will remain weak, it should be
   sufficient given the lack of CIN to initiate a few areas of severe
   storms. The most likely area for initiation would appear to extend
   from northwest OK into the eastern TX Panhandle. Northwest flow
   aloft atop light but veering winds with height should result in
   slow, southward-moving cells capable of very large hail and
   localized wind damage.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/25/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   34990076 36140025 36670010 36699974 36489935 36079905
               35039889 34399881 34049865 33769845 33309800 32999788
               32619844 32599930 32690011 32900092 33260130 34010127
               34470107 34990076 

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Page last modified: May 25, 2018
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