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Mesoscale Discussion 525
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0525
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 AM CDT Sat May 04 2019

   Areas affected...extreme southeast TX...southwest LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 040713Z - 040815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Localized strong gusts are possible but the
   coverage/intensity for severe/damaging gusts is uncertain.  The
   greatest risk for damaging gusts will accompany any
   longer-lived/stronger mesovortices and surging bowing segments as
   the squall line moves east into the lower Sabine Valley.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a north-south squall line over
   southeast TX extending into the western Gulf of Mexico.  The airmass
   downstream of this activity is moist/unstable with around 1000-1500
   J/kg MLCAPE when modifying the 00z LCH raob.  The KLCH VAD shows
   relatively weak low-level winds beneath 35-40kt southwesterly 500mb
   flow.  Instrument measured gusts during the past 1-2 hours have
   remained generally at or below 35kt, suggesting any risk for
   damaging winds has been highly localized over southeast TX.  The
   expectation is the squall line will continue to move to the east
   across the northwest Gulf Coast as a series of smaller-scale MCVs
   associated with the squall line, move east towards the Sabine river
   overnight.

   In the near term, a persistent weak supercell will probably continue
   to episodically intensify/weaken east of Lake Charles.  Although a
   brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out, the weak low-level flow will
   tend to limit the tornado risk.  However, a localized stronger gust
   may accompany the area near the mesocyclone.

   ..Smith/Edwards.. 05/04/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30479471 31309217 29559163 29659321 29549431 30479471 

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Page last modified: May 04, 2019
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