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Mesoscale Discussion 527
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0527
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1216 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

   Areas affected...Central LA into Southwest MS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 144...146...

   Valid 041716Z - 041845Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144, 146 continues.

   SUMMARY...A corridor of relatively greater severe risk may be
   developing across central LA and west-central MS.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing line of thunderstorms extending from far
   southern AR back westward into far southeast TX is beginning to show
   signs of more forward progression, particularly within the portion
   of the line over northern LA. Air mass downstream of this cluster is
   very unstable, with mesoanalysis currently estimating MLCAPE over
   3000 J/kg, and strongly sheared. Additionally, recent surface
   observations and radar imagery appear to reveal a modest boundary
   acting as an effective warm front, roughly from JAN (in Rankin
   County MS) southwestward to just east of AEX (in Rapides Parish LA).
   Temperatures south of this boundary are in the 80s with dewpoints in
   the mid 70s. This boundary could act as an impetus for additional
   storm intensification/organization, with the corridor along this
   effective frontal zone experiencing a heightened threat for strong
   damaging wind gusts as well as hail and brief QLCS tornadoes.

   ..Mosier.. 05/04/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32209323 32759178 32798995 31679011 30889296 32209323 

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