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Mesoscale Discussion 531
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0531
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0217 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

   Areas affected...Far Eastern LA...Central MS...West-Central AL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 144...146...

   Valid 041917Z - 042045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144, 146 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for strong damaging wind gusts, some over 70 mph,
   and embedded QLCS tornadoes will continue for the next several
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery depicts a now well-organized
   convective line extending from north-central MS southwestward into
   eastern LA moving eastward at 45-50 kt. VAD profile from SHV sampled
   the rear-inflow jet well and the latest imagery from DGX is also
   sampling strong winds within this system. Potential exists for gusts
   over 70 mph at the surface.

   Downstream air mass is very moist, with recent mesoanalysis
   estimating 100-mb mean mixing ratios over 16 g/kg and surface
   dewpoints in the low 70s. Earlier storms have reduced the mid-level
   lapse rates a bit, but forecast soundings and mesoanalysis still
   show steep lapse rates in the 800 to 600 mb layer. As such, overall
   buoyancy remains strong and there are no indications within the
   observations or environment of the line weakening.

   Some potential for embedded QLCS tornadoes exist, particularly if
   the rear-inflow continues to mature and descend into the low-levels.

   ..Mosier.. 05/04/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   33039060 33668937 33168780 31808778 31169148 33039060 

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Page last modified: May 04, 2021
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