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Mesoscale Discussion 533
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0533
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0250 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

   Areas affected...Virginia and Maryland

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 148...

   Valid 041950Z - 042145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 148

   SUMMARY...Damaging winds, and perhaps severe hail, remain likely
   across much of Virginia and Maryland as clusters of storms continue
   to move east.

   DISCUSSION...A few clusters of thunderstorms continue to move east
   across central Virginia, and a few reports of wind damage and hail
   have been noted within the past hour. Although these storms remain
   somewhat unorganized, the environment across central VA into MD
   continues to improve. MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg are noted across
   south-central VA, effective bulk shear magnitudes have increased
   slightly across the region, and low-level lapse rates have steepened
   to around 8 C/km (per recent RAP mesoanalysis). This environment
   should remain supportive of a damaging wind/hail threat through the
   remainder of the afternoon as boundary-layer heating continues. One
   or two bowing segments are possible across north VA/west MD where
   low-level shear is slightly stronger (nearly 30 knots 0-3 km bulk
   shear noted in KLWX VWP observations), but confidence in this
   scenario is low.

   ..Moore.. 05/04/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37117963 38097909 39017835 39357760 39537705 39347603
               38607579 37917594 37337683 37087781 37007874 37117963 

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