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Mesoscale Discussion 0533
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021
Areas affected...Virginia and Maryland
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 148...
Valid 041950Z - 042145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 148
SUMMARY...Damaging winds, and perhaps severe hail, remain likely
across much of Virginia and Maryland as clusters of storms continue
to move east.
DISCUSSION...A few clusters of thunderstorms continue to move east
across central Virginia, and a few reports of wind damage and hail
have been noted within the past hour. Although these storms remain
somewhat unorganized, the environment across central VA into MD
continues to improve. MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg are noted across
south-central VA, effective bulk shear magnitudes have increased
slightly across the region, and low-level lapse rates have steepened
to around 8 C/km (per recent RAP mesoanalysis). This environment
should remain supportive of a damaging wind/hail threat through the
remainder of the afternoon as boundary-layer heating continues. One
or two bowing segments are possible across north VA/west MD where
low-level shear is slightly stronger (nearly 30 knots 0-3 km bulk
shear noted in KLWX VWP observations), but confidence in this
scenario is low.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37117963 38097909 39017835 39357760 39537705 39347603
38607579 37917594 37337683 37087781 37007874 37117963
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