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Mesoscale Discussion 535
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0535
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0316 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

   Areas affected...Central North and South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 042016Z - 042215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered wind damage and severe hail are
   possible across central North and South Carolina over the next few
   hours. This threat is expected to be fairly localized and short in
   duration, but a watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have begun to develop along an
   outflow boundary from prior convection over TN/KY/GA. MRMS
   vertically integrated ice and echo top trends over the past 30-60
   minutes show that this activity has been largely transient with
   individual cells exhibiting short lifespans in the absence of
   stronger forcing for ascent and weak vertical wind shear.
   Nonetheless, strong boundary-layer heating is noted across the
   Carolinas where skies have been mostly clear through the day and
   temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s and low 90s amid
   dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s. This is supporting MLCAPE
   values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg along with steep low-level
   lapse rates (near 8 C/km per RAP mesoanalysis). This environment is
   supportive of at least a few instances of severe hail and damaging
   winds with any stronger updraft pulses. The severe threat may be
   slightly higher across central/southern SC where deep-layer shear is
   somewhat stronger (near 30 knots of effective bulk shear). Overall,
   the coverage and duration of this threat is expected to remain low,
   but trends will be monitored and a watch is possible if confidence
   in coverage and intensity increases.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 05/04/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34168261 34808170 35168111 35688040 36377971 36547895
               36357780 35967727 35357737 34477761 33767886 33087968
               32808040 32798092 33188159 33678212 34168261 

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