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Mesoscale Discussion 546
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0546
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0502 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

   Areas affected...Southwest...Central...and Northeast Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 232202Z - 232330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
   couple tornadoes are possible this evening. Tornado watch likely.

   DISCUSSION...Regional surface observations depict a stalling dryline
   situated along a southwest to northeast oriented line from near
   Hobert to Okarche to Manchester, OK. East of this boundary, surface
   dew point temperatures are in the low 60s F, with an area of 64 F
   dew point temperatures entering south-central Oklahoma. Surface
   winds in the warm sector are sustained from the south near 20 kt,
   and KTLX VAD profiles show southerly flow increasing to near 40 kt
   at 1 km AGL, with substantial veering between 1-2 km AGL, indicative
   of a sickle-shaped hodograph. 

   Despite broken mid- to high-level clouds that continue to propagate
   over the region, the combination of modest convergence along the
   surface dry line and ascent from an approaching mid-level trough
   should lead to widespread convective development in the next 1-2
   hours. This evolution is supported by the latest high resolution CAM
   guidance. The thermodynamic/kinematic conditions should promote
   supercell modes to evolve, posing a threat for large hail, damaging,
   wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes. A tornado watch will likely be
   needed soon across the area in anticipation of these convective
   threats.

   ..Karstens/Thompson.. 04/23/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34269785 34479907 35439848 36859767 36849635 35889620
               34639719 34269785 

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