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Mesoscale Discussion 557
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0557
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

   Areas affected...northwest AR and eastern OK into north TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 280532Z - 280700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A QLCS will continue to gradually shift east with time
   overnight. A new watch or two will likely be needed in the next hour
   for parts of northwest Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and north Texas.

   DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS extending from northeast OK into central
   TX is gradually shifting east, though individual convective elements
   within the line are moving more northeast. Most discrete supercells
   ahead of the line earlier this evening have now merged with the
   QLCS, though some potential still exists for an isolated pre-QLCS
   supercell to develop from far north TX into southeast OK.  A strong
   southerly low-level jet is contributing to enlarged, curved
   hodographs and 0-1 km SRH around 200-400 m2/s2. This should continue
   to support rotation/mesovortex development and tornado potential the
   next several hours. Damaging wind to 70 mph also will be possible in
   additional to tornado potential.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/28/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36489347 35049415 33279539 32339638 31979720 31809834
               31969896 33059792 34489579 36499457 36489347 

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