Mesoscale Discussion 0561
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0128 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

   Areas affected...a part of east-central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281828Z - 282030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Redeveloping thunderstorms along the I-35 corridor in
   central Texas may intensify as they spread northeastward into a part
   of east Texas later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Regenerative thunderstorm development persists in parts
   of central TX across the outflow from an MCS that decayed this
   morning. Surface temperatures continue to warm into the upper 70s to
   low 80s within cloud breaks south and east of the large-scale
   outflow boundary arcing across east TX. This is yielding moderate
   buoyancy amid upper 60s to low 70s surface dew points. With a
   favorable deep-layer wind profile (0-6km shear near 50 kts) per GRK
   VWP data, a couple supercells within an emerging cluster may
   develop. Overall convective mode will likely remain nebulous for the
   next few hours with uncertainty on whether a supercell can become
   sustained and track along the remnant outflow boundary. Should this
   occur, it would support a late afternoon tornado threat while the
   region remains on the southwest periphery of 850-mb winds in excess
   of 30 kts.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 04/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   31159754 31929699 32159648 32239594 32199559 32109524
               31639497 31239505 31069525 30999557 30779608 30509638
               30319709 30489746 31159754