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Mesoscale Discussion 570
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0570
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0122 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

   Areas affected...portions of central/southern LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 290622Z - 290715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat may persist through the overnight hours.
   Damaging gusts and a tornado will be the main concern with this
   activity. A new watch will be needed by 07z.

   DISCUSSION...A mature MCS over central LA into southeast TX will
   continue to develop east/southeast overnight. A 06z RAOB from LCH
   shows a modestly unstable airmass with near 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. A deep
   saturated layer from the surface to around 700 mb will preclude
   steep low-level lapse rates and limit cold pool strength. This will
   likely limit a more widespread damaging wind risk. Nevertheless,
   favorable vertical shear and sufficient instability will support a
   continued risk for at least sporadic, locally strong to severe gusts
   of 45-60 mph. Nearer to the coast where dewpoints are in the low
   70s, vertically veering low-level winds with somewhat enlarged
   low-level hodographs may support some brief tornado potential. But
   strong gusts are expected to largely be the main concern through
   early morning.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/29/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31079456 31969269 31809199 31479158 30599151 30309154
               29679182 29429242 29509327 29709380 29909417 30479476
               30819492 31079456 

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