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Mesoscale Discussion 572
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0572
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1000 AM CDT Tue May 12 2020

   Areas affected...portions of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121500Z - 121700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for a couple of tornadoes or strong wind gusts
   will exist across parts of central TX this morning and may persist
   into the afternoon. A watch may be needed if trends continue to
   increase.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning in a
   zone of low-level confluence within a broader warm advection regime.
   Visible and water vapor satellite loops suggest an MCV from
   overnight convection is likely enhancing low-level shear environment
   and current thunderstorm organization. Mid to upper 60s F surface
   dewpoints will continue to spread northward across central TX toward
   north TX today. This should allow for MLCAPE increasing through the
   day to values as high as 1500 J/kg. Effective shear across the
   region will remain modest due to the lack of a strong mid/upper
   level trough. However, via influence from the MCV, low-level SRH
   greater than 150 m2/s2 will persist into the afternoon, and given
   the moist and unstable environment, should continue to support
   low-level rotation and sporadic tornado development. As such, a
   watch may be needed later this morning or this afternoon if radar
   trends continue to increase. Furthermore, an upgrade to Slight risk
   will be included with the 1630z Day 1 Convective outlook across part
   of central TX.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29509898 30169879 30569858 30879834 30969826 30999789
               30959712 30859678 30689645 30419630 30119627 29959631
               29649650 29459699 29359745 29369851 29509898 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2020
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