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Mesoscale Discussion 582
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0582
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0207 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Texas...northwest through
   north of the Greater Houston area

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 101907Z - 102100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated intense thunderstorm development is possible by
   the 4-6 PM CDT time frame, if not before.  This could include a
   supercell or two, posing a risk for large, damaging hail, strong
   wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado.  While
   probabilities for a severe weather watch still appear low due to the
   somewhat uncertain and isolated nature of the threat, trends will
   continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Attempts at deep convective development have been
   ongoing near the intersection of a remnant convectively generated or
   enhanced surface boundary and a stalling surface cold front, roughly
   near the Huntsville vicinity.  This is occurring in the presence of
   an environment conditionally supportive of considerable severe
   weather potential, characterized by seasonably high boundary-layer
   moisture content, relatively steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse
   rates, and large CAPE.  Deep-layer shear is also strong near/beneath
   a seasonably strong subtropical jet.

   Forecast soundings suggest that at least weakly capping mid-level
   layers are still present across the region, and mid/upper forcing
   for ascent to contribute to further erosion of this capping remains
   unclear.  However, various model output, including the NAM and Rapid
   Refresh/High Resolution Rapid Refresh have been suggestive that the
   initiation of at least an isolated storm or two is possible during
   the 4-6 PM CDT, if not before.

   If inhibition weakens sufficiently to support a sustained storm,
   this may include a period of rapid intensification, with the
   evolution of a supercell structure or two possible.  This could pose
   a risk for large, damaging hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter),
   locally strong surface gusts, and perhaps some potential for a

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/10/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31539538 30999437 30619420 30529489 30469616 30999630

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