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Mesoscale Discussion 582
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0582
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0654 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

   Areas affected...Central/Southern IA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 163...

   Valid 302354Z - 010130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 163 continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the
   remainder of ww163 over the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Strongly diffluent high-level flow is proving favorable
   for ongoing convection immediately ahead of progressive short-wave
   trough.  Focused LLJ, currently over northern MO/central IA, will
   translate downstream into IL/WI later this evening as the short wave
   ejects into the upper MS Valley. While surface warm front will
   gradually advance north in response to this feature, downstream
   buoyancy is notably weaker, and most likely won't recover
   appreciably prior to short wave passage. Latest thinking is ongoing
   supercells will progress across the remainder of ww163 and then
   encounter a less favorable thermodynamic environment where weakening
   updrafts are expected. Until then, severe risk continues, including
   the threat of tornadoes.

   ..Darrow.. 04/30/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42399712 42169243 40429244 40659714 42399712 

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