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Mesoscale Discussion 590
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0590
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0333 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024

   Areas affected...South central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 012033Z - 012200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
   across portions of south central Texas and the Hill Country within
   the next 1 to 2 hours. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and
   wind gusts exceeding 70 mph could accompany a couple of discrete
   supercells.

   DISCUSSION...Widespread stratus across most of south central Texas
   has been slow to erode through this afternoon. However, visible
   satellite imagery indicates some mixing is occurring across the
   region where temperatures are already in the mid 70s to low 80s.
   This, combined with dew points in the low to mid 70s and steep
   (7.5-8 C) mid level lapse rates is yielding 2500-3000 J/kg of
   MLCAPE. As an upstream mid level shortwave trough, apparent in
   latest WV imagery over southwest Chihuahua Mexico, approaches in the
   next 1 to 2 hours mid level ascent should aid in the development of
   scattered thunderstorms. Given deep layer effective shear magnitudes
   around 50 kt any localized deeper convection could become organized
   with a threat of very large hail and damaging wind gusts, though a
   lack of additional forcing mechanisms at the surface should limit
   the overall coverage of severe thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty
   of the coverage, confidence in a weather watch is not particularly
   high at this moment.

   ..Barnes/Lyons/Hart.. 05/01/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   28389814 28429856 28569925 29389969 30420039 31130025
               31529979 31589889 31409814 31279765 31189746 30729710
               30169673 29909683 29549684 29279692 29089738 28689738
               28519762 28419788 28389814 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2024
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