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Mesoscale Discussion 612
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0612
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0517 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

   Areas affected...Southeast NM...West TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142217Z - 142345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms capable of localized strong
   wind gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible into early
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across
   portions of southeast NM into west TX as of 2215Z. Strong heating
   and relatively steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE of
   generally 500-1000 J/kg, while low-level southeasterly flow veering
   to modest westerlies aloft is resulting in effective shear of 30-35
   kt across the region, which will support a few strong multicells and
   perhaps a transient supercell with the most intense updrafts. While
   large-scale ascent is generally weak across the region, continued
   development and intensification will be possible near terrain-driven
   circulations and in the vicinity of a weak surface trough across
   southeast NM. 

   The most likely hazard is isolated severe gusts, with large
   temperature/dewpoint spreads and DCAPE across the region, though
   some instances of hail will also be possible given steep midlevel
   lapse rates. The threat will likely persist into the early evening
   before diminishing due to the onset of diurnal
   cooling/stabilization.

   ..Dean/Grams.. 05/14/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   30050470 30480470 32420497 33240485 33240423 33150341
               32280309 31410295 30760293 29920307 28990317 29130371
               29580449 30000473 30050470 

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Page last modified: May 14, 2021
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