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Mesoscale Discussion 613
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MD 613 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0613
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0118 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

   Areas of the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 031818Z - 032015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development,
   including a couple of evolving supercells, appears increasingly
   probable through 2-4 PM CDT.  Strongest storms may eventually become
   capable of producing large hail in excess of 3 inches in diameter,
   and perhaps potential for a tornado.

   DISCUSSION...Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content beneath
   steep lapse rates associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air is
   allowing for the development of strong to extreme potential
   instability with full insolation.  During the next few hours this
   will become focused along a zone of strengthening differential
   surface heating and mixing, where an initial cold frontal surge into
   the Texas South Plains has stalled and is weakening, and along a
   sharpening dryline south of this boundary into the Davis Mountains

   Mid/upper support for convective development is unclear, but west to
   southwesterly flow aloft appears to be trending at least broadly
   difluent, as initially weak low-level warm advection becomes a bit
   more enhanced along the boundaries.  The Rapid Refresh and
   High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, among other output, suggest that the
   initiation of isolated to widely scattered storms may commence as
   early as 19-21Z, as convective temperatures are approached.

   Lower through mid-level wind fields are at least initially rather
   weak, but veering with height beneath 20-40 kt flow in the 500-300
   mb layer seems likely to be supportive of the evolution of intense
   supercell structures given the instability.  Tornadic potential
   appears a bit more unclear, but in the presence of light to modest
   southwesterly deep layer mean flow, rightward propagating storms
   along the segment of strengthening differential heating roughly
   near/north of Big Spring into areas west of Abilene may pose the
   most appreciable risk.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 05/03/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31909934 31220098 30610136 29930172 29780198 29640274
               30990296 31900244 33200179 32849974 31909934 

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