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Mesoscale Discussion 614
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0614
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0219 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

   Areas affected...The high plains of northeast New Mexico and
   southeast Colorado...extreme southwest Kansas...western Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031919Z - 032045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop over the high
   plains of southeastern CO and northeastern NM through this
   afternoon. Hail near 1-1.25 inches in diameter, wind gusts of 55 to
   70 mph, and perhaps a landspout or two will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Surface mass/moisture convergence and insolation has
   increased near the Raton Mesa this afternoon leading to the
   development of moist convection. This area is also beneath the right
   entrance region of a mid level jet max now progressing ENE over
   northwestern KS. Both recent visible satellite imagery and radar
   indicate a few stronger updrafts continue to persist on the NM side,
   where moisture advection has led to dewpoints increasing into the
   upper 40s to low 50s. The environment is also characterized by
   increasing MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and effective shear
   magnitudes around 30 kts. Although not particularly favorable for
   supercell development, this environment could support a few
   organized updrafts capable of marginally severe hail and damaging
   wind gusts. The latter may be especially true across CO where
   inverted V profiles will persist longer. In addition, low level CAPE
   is also increasing across this region and should expand northward
   over the next 1-2 hours, aiding in enhanced stretching which could
   support a landspout or two.

   ..Barnes/Squitieri/Smith.. 05/03/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37030152 36590257 35920413 35890511 36480522 36980498
               37960478 38500375 38540260 38290186 37860143 37490140

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