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Mesoscale Discussion 618
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0618
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0613 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

   Areas affected...Southwestern Kansas...far southeastern
   Colorado...Oklahoma Panhandle...far northern Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180...

   Valid 032313Z - 040045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180

   SUMMARY...The threat of large hail and severe/damaging gusts
   continues. A brief window for a tornado risk will exist for discrete
   storms between 00-03Z.

   DISCUSSION...A couple clusters of storms continue within WW 180.
   Visible satellite shows some modestly agitated cumulus ahead of this
   activity and west of modifying outflow from yesterdays convection.
   While overall deep layer ascent remains weak as the primary trough
   is passing by to the north, an increase in the low-level jet is
   expected this evening. As this occurs, additional storms may form.
   40 kts of effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should
   continue to promote some threat for large hail and severe/damaging
   wind gusts. Wind gust potential would likely increase as storm
   coverage/cold pool interactions increase. The tornado risk should
   largely be mitigated by an unfavorable storm mode. However, discrete
   storms would have some potential to produce a tornado, particularly
   within the 00-03Z time window.

   ..Wendt.. 05/03/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36010227 36170304 36440339 36810343 37680248 38520250
               38910232 39130043 38869978 37699975 36780000 36360021
               36030085 35960216 36010227 

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