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Mesoscale Discussion 623
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0623
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0120 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

   Areas affected...central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 261820Z - 262045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective initiation is forecast over central TX by mid
   afternoon coincident with the leading edge of ascent/cirrus nosing
   into the Big Country.  Additional storms may develop near the
   outflow/warm front intersection.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
   field south of an outflow boundary and east of a dryline.  Surface
   temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s deg F with dewpoints in
   the mid 50s near San Angelo and upper 60s near the warm front. 
   Forecast soundings show minimal convective inhibition remaining
   across central TX as the boundary layer continues to
   warm/destabilize.  Water-vapor imagery shows the leading edge of
   cirrus and implied ascent spreading quickly east across the Permian
   Basin and into the Big Country.  As a result, convective initiation
   is expected in the next hour or so near Abilene.  Once the remaining
   cap is breached, expecting explosive updraft growth with a hail risk
   quickly developing.  Effective shear 40-50 kt and MLCAPE in excess
   of 3000 J/kg will rapidly promote supercell development.  Large to
   giant hail (diameters 1 to 3+ inches) is expected.  A tornado risk
   will likely focus near the warm front where relatively backed
   low-level flow augmenting hodograph size, and surface
   temperature-dewpoint spreads are less than 20 deg will reside.  A
   strong tornado may occur if an established supercell(s) can interact
   favorably with the warm frontal zone.

   ..Smith/Gleason.. 04/26/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31729631 32399781 32499846 32429990 32280026 31910042
               31530040 31120010 30359723 30409669 30819632 31259617

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