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Mesoscale Discussion 624
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MD 624 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0624
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0332 PM CDT Mon May 02 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of southern KS and northwestern into
   north-central OK

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 171...

   Valid 022032Z - 022200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 171 continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest threat for tornadoes and very large hail
   should focus across parts of southern Kansas and northwestern
   Oklahoma through 5 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed over part of southwestern KS
   in close proximity to the surface low, with large hail up to 1.75
   inches in diameter reported so far. Other convection has initiated
   along the dryline in northwestern OK and is gradually intensifying
   into supercells. Recent VWPs from KVNX show a strengthening wind
   profile with height through mid levels, with around 200 m2/s2 of 0-1
   km SRH and 50+ kt of deep-layer shear. Even stronger low-level SRH
   may be present farther east into north-central OK along/near the
   effective warm front. Any supercells that can remain at least
   semi-discrete will continue to pose a threat for very large hail (2
   to 3 inch diameter) and tornadoes as they move eastward over the
   next hour or two given this favorable low-level and deep-layer
   shear, and the presence of 1000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Greater
   boundary-layer instability is present over northwestern into
   north-central OK in a fairly narrow corridor, where robust heating
   is occurring and surface dewpoints have recently surged into the
   upper 60s. This area will probably have the best chance for a strong
   tornado in the short term.

   ..Gleason.. 05/02/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36079886 36599866 36879866 37049920 37349960 37729934
               37709847 37509779 37059735 36529704 36069704 35789768
               35729859 36079886 

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