|Mesoscale Discussion 624|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0624
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Mon May 02 2022
Areas affected...Portions of southern KS and northwestern into
Concerning...Tornado Watch 171...
Valid 022032Z - 022200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 171 continues.
SUMMARY...The greatest threat for tornadoes and very large hail
should focus across parts of southern Kansas and northwestern
Oklahoma through 5 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed over part of southwestern KS
in close proximity to the surface low, with large hail up to 1.75
inches in diameter reported so far. Other convection has initiated
along the dryline in northwestern OK and is gradually intensifying
into supercells. Recent VWPs from KVNX show a strengthening wind
profile with height through mid levels, with around 200 m2/s2 of 0-1
km SRH and 50+ kt of deep-layer shear. Even stronger low-level SRH
may be present farther east into north-central OK along/near the
effective warm front. Any supercells that can remain at least
semi-discrete will continue to pose a threat for very large hail (2
to 3 inch diameter) and tornadoes as they move eastward over the
next hour or two given this favorable low-level and deep-layer
shear, and the presence of 1000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Greater
boundary-layer instability is present over northwestern into
north-central OK in a fairly narrow corridor, where robust heating
is occurring and surface dewpoints have recently surged into the
upper 60s. This area will probably have the best chance for a strong
tornado in the short term.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 36079886 36599866 36879866 37049920 37349960 37729934
37709847 37509779 37059735 36529704 36069704 35789768
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