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Mesoscale Discussion 626
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0626
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0635 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

   Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico and West/Southwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173...

   Valid 152335Z - 160100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts
   continues across WW 173.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite shows a relatively long-lived
   supercell with a history of producing severe hail moving southeast
   through portions of Pecos county into Terrell county in the Big Bend
   region of southwest Texas.  Other cells developing along high
   terrain in portions of far southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico
   are beginning to enter western portions of WW 173. One of these
   cells produced a measured wind gust of 62 mph at the Culberson, TX,
   ASOS station.

   In the near term, isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will
   remain the primary threat with the ongoing convective activity,
   particularly as storms continue moving eastward into improving
   thermodynamic conditions. Presently, SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE
   ranging from near 1000 J/kg in western portions of the watch area,
   to near 2000 J/kg along the eastern edge, amid effective shear
   values near 35 kt promoting multicell and transient supercell
   structures. Thus, the severe threat is expected to continue. 

   To the east of WW 173, stabilizing outflow from previous convective
   activity is evident in visible satellite imagery, with near 100 J/kg
   of SBCIN analyzed in mesoanalysis. These observations suggest the
   storm entering Terrell county may have somewhat limited aerial
   extent of severe potential as it nears the southeastern edge of the
   watch area. However, convective trends will continue to be monitored
   closely.

   With time, storms farther west may congeal into more of a linear
   structure, and should this occur, the threat will transition to
   primarily damaging winds through the remainder of the evening.

   ..Karstens.. 05/15/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   32330432 33260398 33590325 33170251 32840109 31350104
               30210122 29580212 28990320 29320389 30740490 32330432 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2021
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