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Mesoscale Discussion 630
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0630
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0953 PM CDT Mon May 02 2022

   Areas affected...East-central Oklahoma into central Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 172...

   Valid 030253Z - 030430Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 172 continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging winds will become the primary threat as
   quasi-linear storms move into WW 172. Some tornado risk will remain
   with line-embedded circulations. These risks will maximize
   near/south of the warm front that will slowly move north.

   DISCUSSION...Quasi-linear storms with embedded bowing segments
   continue across eastern Oklahoma. These storms will approach the
   Arkansas/Oklahoma border within the next hour or so. Part of this
   activity will likely remain north of the warm front, though the
   boundary will shift northward some as the surface low shifts into
   Missouri. While damaging winds are expected to become the primary
   threat, low-level shear will continue to support some threat for
   QLCS tornadoes along the line as well. These threats should be
   maximized near and just south of of the warm front. With increasing
   convective inhibition with time, a weakening trend is expected by
   the time storms move into parts of central/southern Arkansas. WW 172
   is set to expire at 11 PM CDT, though some storms will still be
   ongoing. Local temporal extension or replacement of the watch may be
   needed.

   ..Wendt.. 05/03/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35479502 35999454 36079396 35539269 34999217 34289216
               33809284 33869353 34279431 34759503 35049532 35479502 

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