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Mesoscale Discussion 632
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0632
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 AM CDT Tue May 03 2022

   Areas affected...Western/Central AR

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174...

   Valid 030554Z - 030700Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts will continue across
   western and central AR for the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a convective line
   extending from north-central AR back southwestward into far
   southwest AR. Overall structure of this convective line has
   generally weakened over the past hour or so, evidenced by
   diminishing updraft strength within the line and preceding outflow.
   This correlates well with expectations as the line moves into a less
   buoyant and increasingly more stable airmass with eastern extent.
   Even so, recent velocity data from KLZK shows a evidence of a
   rear-inflow jet and there remains a threat for occasional damaging
   wind gusts as the line moves southeastward.

   Estimated storm motion of the line is southeastward at around 36 kt,
   taking it to the edge of the watch in central AR around 07Z.
   Southern portion of the line is further west and may be moving
   slightly faster, taking it to the edge of the watch in south-central
   AR around 0730Z. Given the current trends and downstream
   stabilization, a downstream watch is not currently anticipated.

   ..Mosier.. 05/03/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   35649263 36139208 35539159 34129215 33419303 33679451
               35649263 

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Page last modified: May 03, 2022
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