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Mesoscale Discussion 633
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0633
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Tue May 03 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Indiana...adjacent
   portions of Ohio and Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031730Z - 031930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong storms may gradually evolve through 3-5 PM
   EDT, posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind.  The
   overall threat appears generally marginal, and it is not clear that
   a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to
   be monitored for this possibility.

   DISCUSSION...A modest surface cyclone north of Danville IL is
   forecast to continue slowly migrating east-northeastward toward the
   Fort Wayne IN area during the next few hours, ahead of the main
   mid-level short wave trough now turning east of the middle
   Mississippi Valley.  Within the warm sector of this low, ahead of a
   trailing surface cold front, deepening convective development is
   evident, as the boundary-layer begins to destabilize more
   substantively.  Instability is largely being driven by insolation
   beneath weak mid-level cooling.  Lapse rates are generally weak, but
   it appears that surface dew points in the lower to mid 60s F may
   contribute to mixed-layer CAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg.

   In the presence of strong deep-layer shear beneath 40-50 kt
   west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, the environment may
   become increasingly conducive to organizing convection.  Although
   flow around 850 mb remains strong (on the order of 40 kt), it is
   generally veered and likely to maintain a considerable westerly
   component, with forecast soundings indicating low-level hodographs
   trending more linear through this afternoon.  While this appears
   likely to limit the risk for tornadoes, stronger storms may pose at
   least some risk for severe hail and potentially damaging surface
   gusts.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 05/03/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   40578637 40998476 39218509 38418584 38028719 38268766
               39388708 40578637 

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