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Mesoscale Discussion 633
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0633
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0102 PM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018

   Areas affected...parts of western and central New Mexico and into
   far West Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 031802Z - 032000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe risk is expected to continue increasing across
   portions of New Mexico and far West Texas over the next few hours. 
   WW will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery and radar loops show
   convection increasing at this time over parts of western New Mexico,
   as ascent associated with the Four-Corners-area vort max overspreads
   this area.

   Strong diurnal heating across this region has helped boost
   mixed-layer CAPE, with near 500 J/kg values in northwest New Mexico
   increasing to near 2000 J/kg over south-central New Mexico and far
   West Texas, where greater boundary-layer dewpoints are observed. 
   Continued heating/destabilization and existing large-scale ascent
   suggests continued convective increase over the next several hours.

   Along with ample CAPE, moderately strong southwesterly mid-level
   flow is indicated atop the area per area VWPs -- contributing to
   veering/increasing winds with height supportive of
   organized/rotating storms.  CAM runs suggest isolated storm mode
   initially, with eventual upscale growth later this afternoon and
   evening into one or more eastward-moving MCSs.  While resulting
   severe risk would likely trend toward primarily wind damaging in
   this scenario, the initial/more cellular storms will likely prove
   capable of producing hail, in addition to locally damaging winds.  A
   tornado or two may also occur with initial/rotating storm mode.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/03/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   31730674 33790847 35360882 36520896 36870769 36650551
               35000524 32900525 31330482 30870499 30850534 31350594
               31450615 31730642 31730674 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2018
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