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Mesoscale Discussion 634
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0634
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0233 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

   Areas affected...Southern MO to Northern MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151933Z - 152130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are expected across
   the MRGL Risk area into the late afternoon. Hail/wind are the
   primary threats, though a watch is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Early-day cluster of convection that spread southeast
   across the OH/MS River confluence region has forced a boundary west
   to a position arcing from northeast MS-western TN-southeast MO.
   Strong boundary-layer heating west of this wind shift has
   contributed to negligible CINH such that boundary-layer cu are
   slowly deepening across the warm sector. Over the last 30 minutes a
   thunderstorm has evolved along the outflow over western Butler
   County MO and new updrafts should develop along the favorable
   low-level boundary as the afternoon progresses. Forecast soundings
   suggest hail/wind may be noted with the strongest storms but this
   activity is weakly sheared and should be slow-moving. Convection is
   expected to propagate south around 10kt and remain strongly diurnal
   in nature.

   ..Darrow/Grams.. 05/15/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36949075 35918961 34988894 34508952 34789073 36599249

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