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Mesoscale Discussion 635
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0635
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1053 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020

   Areas affected...central and southern FL Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191553Z - 191730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of intense storms could produce locally damaging
   wind gusts and hail this afternoon from parts of central into
   southern FL. Given the isolated nature of the threat (1 or 2 storms)
   a watch is not expected at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening CU and intensifying radar reflectivity has
   been noted recently across parts of central into southern FL. Strong
   heating and surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F has resulted
   in an uncapped environment and MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg as of 15z.
   Surface temperatures are currently near the mid-80s, with forecast
   soundings suggesting convective temperatures have been, or have been
   nearly, reached already. Forcing will remain limited across the
   region, with diurnal processes being the main driver of convection
   through the afternoon hours. Regional 12z RAOBs and more recent 88-D
   VWPs show effective shear is modest, around 20-30 kts. However,
   strong instability and modest midlevel lapse rates should help to
   compensate for the lack of stronger shear. Given the moisture-rich
   environment and PW values from 1.5-2.0 inches, strong downbursts are
   possible, and could result in locally damaging gusts. Additionally,
   hail is possible with any cell that can maintain an organized
   structure for more than a brief period.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

   LAT...LON   25407976 25178012 25278079 25708129 26198172 26718191
               27028193 27598156 28078107 28268077 28408057 28428025
               27747993 26887965 25407976 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2020
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