Mesoscale Discussion 0635
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020
Areas affected...central and southern FL Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 191553Z - 191730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of intense storms could produce locally damaging
wind gusts and hail this afternoon from parts of central into
southern FL. Given the isolated nature of the threat (1 or 2 storms)
a watch is not expected at this time.
DISCUSSION...Deepening CU and intensifying radar reflectivity has
been noted recently across parts of central into southern FL. Strong
heating and surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F has resulted
in an uncapped environment and MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg as of 15z.
Surface temperatures are currently near the mid-80s, with forecast
soundings suggesting convective temperatures have been, or have been
nearly, reached already. Forcing will remain limited across the
region, with diurnal processes being the main driver of convection
through the afternoon hours. Regional 12z RAOBs and more recent 88-D
VWPs show effective shear is modest, around 20-30 kts. However,
strong instability and modest midlevel lapse rates should help to
compensate for the lack of stronger shear. Given the moisture-rich
environment and PW values from 1.5-2.0 inches, strong downbursts are
possible, and could result in locally damaging gusts. Additionally,
hail is possible with any cell that can maintain an organized
structure for more than a brief period.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 25407976 25178012 25278079 25708129 26198172 26718191
27028193 27598156 28078107 28268077 28408057 28428025
27747993 26887965 25407976