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Mesoscale Discussion 636
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0636
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0608 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

   Areas affected...Central and Eastern North Dakota...Northern South
   Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 167...

   Valid 152308Z - 160115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 167
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is likely to increase across parts of
   central North Dakota over the next couple of hours. Isolated large
   hail and wind damage should be the primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis has a 1001 mb low over central
   North Dakota with a cold front extending south-southwestward into
   western South Dakota. A narrow corridor of maximized low-level
   moisture is present ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in
   south south-central North Dakota in the upper 50s and lower 60s F.
   In response, a pocket of moderate instability is present with the
   RAP estimating MLCAPE values in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range.
   Thunderstorms are ongoing just to the east of the surface low on the
   northern edge of the stronger instability. In addition to moderate
   instability, the WSR-88D VWP at Bismark has 0-6 km shear near 50 kt
   suggesting the wind shear environment will support severe
   thunderstorm development. Shear will increase some over the next few
   hours as the low-level jet strengthens. This will help increase the
   severe threat as cells become more mature along the moist axis.
   Supercells with isolated large hail will be possible. Wind damage
   may also occur as well.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/15/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45249795 45260035 45460028 45460197 46980209 46990174
               47240170 47220136 47550136 47490185 47600225 47730224
               47780238 47870239 47910102 48600106 48610038 48530037
               48529951 48399949 48389893 48559899 48539833 48259829
               48219839 48079839 48029853 47579850 47179846 46649846
               46639805 45249795 

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