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Mesoscale Discussion 637
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0637
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0805 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019

   Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota...North-central to Northeast
   South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 167...

   Valid 160105Z - 160300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 167
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat across east-central North Dakota is
   likely to gradually decrease this evening. Hail and wind damage will
   be primary threats. Weather watch issuance is not expected to the
   east of the current watch.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a broken line of strong
   to severe thunderstorms located from just north of Grand Forks
   south-southwestward to near Jamestown. The line is located along an
   axis of moderate instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE values
   in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, the Aberdeen and Grand
   Forks WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 kt range along
   with gradually veering winds with height in the lowest 3 km AGL.
   This wind profile will continue to support severe thunderstorm
   development with isolated supercells possible. Storms that exhibit
   rotation will have the potential to produce hail and isolated wind
   damage. The severe threat is expected to gradually decrease across
   eastern North Dakota over the next couple of hours as instability
   begins to drop across the northern Plains.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/16/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45249795 46649801 46649764 47229766 47269746 47689742
               47669687 48119712 48589715 48569899 48399897 48399985
               47829981 47830009 46640009 46640067 46520055 46310054
               46160059 45880048 45530047 45250017 45249795 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2019
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