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Mesoscale Discussion 641
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0641
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 PM CDT Wed May 04 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern VA and northeastern NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041756Z - 042030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of a few strong to severe storms capable of
   localized wind damage and isolated large hail will increase through
   the afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows an
   east/west-oriented deepening cumulus field developing in
   southeastern VA, where isolated convection is beginning to develop.
   In the vicinity of this boundary, surface temperatures in the lower
   80s amid upper 60s dewpoints is yielding moderate to strong
   surface-based buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates. Despite weak
   south-southwesterly surface winds, regional VWP data shows
   strengthening midlevel west-southwesterly flow overspreading the
   area which should support 20-30 kt effective bulk shear. 

   While limited large-scale ascent and only modest deep-layer shear
   casts uncertainty on the coverage and sustenance of convection,
   present indications are that a few loosely organized multicell
   clusters or transient supercell structures capable of isolated large
   hail and locally damaging gusts will spread eastward toward the
   coast through the afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected at this
   time.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 05/04/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37547570 36887572 36527583 36477574 36327671 36227798
               36277866 36677885 37057890 37467866 37737818 37897773
               37997714 38017644 37977602 37547570 

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Page last modified: May 04, 2022
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