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Mesoscale Discussion 649
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0649
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1147 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024

   Areas affected...southern KS...western/central OK...and eastern TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 061647Z - 061845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...PDS Tornado Watch issuance will be needed ahead of this
   portion of the dryline during the early afternoon. At least a few
   long-track, discrete supercells are expected, becoming capable of
   producing intense (EF3+) tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...16Z surface analysis placed the dryline from near
   Garden City, KS to Lubbock, TX, with the Pacific cold front lagging
   westward with southern extent in the southern High Plains. Airmass
   continues to destabilize ahead of the dryline, with MLCIN becoming
   weak into at least western OK and the TX Panhandle where
   boundary-layer warming has been more prominent in cloud breaks.

   The expectation is for initial dryline/Pacific front development to
   occur in southwest KS and build south into the eastern TX
   Panhandle/western OK vicinity by late afternoon. Ample low to
   deep-layer shear will support several supercells with very large
   hail, tornadoes, and severe gusts probable. The impinging of an
   intense upper jet from NM into western OK over the next several
   hours, along with strengthening of low-level flow this evening, will
   yield an increasingly favorable kinematic environment for long-track
   and intense supercells capable of significant tornadoes, especially
   with southern extent in western/central OK.

   ..Grams/Smith.. 05/06/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38020038 38419902 38439838 38209755 37769729 37349720
               35949717 34649722 34029793 34069974 34280034 35140050
               36740063 38020038 

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