Mesoscale Discussion 0652
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0917 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020
Areas affected...portions of western Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196...
Valid 210217Z - 210415Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196
SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms continue, but will continue
to become more isolated and sporadic in nature through 05 UTC.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar and GOES IR satellite imagery continues
to show thunderstorms ongoing along outflow boundaries from early
convection. Storms south of the I-40 corridor have exhibited a
gradual weakening trend per radar, satellite, and lightning data,
but pockets of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 knots of effective
bulk shear may allow for periodic intensification that will pose a
hail and wind threat over the next hour or so. Increasing inhibition
with further loss of daytime heating within this area should
contribute to a diminishing severe threat and inhibit widespread
additional convective development.
Further south towards San Angelo, TX, cold pool amalgamation within
a cluster of thunderstorms has supported continued convective
development to the east/southeast despite increasing inhibition.
This trend is reflected in recent GOES IR imagery, and an increasing
low-level jet through the next 1-3 hours will promote continued
storm development to the south/southeast. Despite weak bulk shear,
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will continue to pose an isolated hail threat
with the strongest updrafts. While damaging wind gusts remain
possible, the probability of widespread damaging winds will diminish
as the boundary layer becomes decoupled.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 30290121 31590148 33210179 34240259 34710247 35150214
35150058 34710042 33119975 31629954 30919952 30289967