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Mesoscale Discussion 652
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0652
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

   Areas affected...Western South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188...

   Valid 061900Z - 062100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to show signs of intensification
   across western SD. As such, the severe threat across western
   portions of WW 183 continues.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a trio of discrete cells have
   become better organized along a cold front as it shifts
   east/northeast. This intensification has been slow, but MRMS
   vertically integrated ice and MESH metrics show these cells
   approaching severe limits. Additionally, organized mesocyclones have
   been noted in velocity data with some of these cells. Although the
   effective warm sector remains very narrow immediately ahead of these
   cells, continued profile cooling via persistent/strong synoptic
   ascent coupled with gradual low-level warming is supporting SBCAPE
   values approaching 2000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear vectors and low-level
   SRH continues to favor discrete to semi-discrete storm modes with
   the potential for large hail and at least a low-end tornado threat -
   especially where temperatures have warmed into the low 70s, allowing
   for better low-level buoyancy to support stronger lifting/stretching
   of environmental SRH and ambient vorticity along the boundary. Given
   the very limited extent of the warm sector, the severe threat for
   the next 1-2 hours should be relatively confined to areas downstream
   of ongoing/developing convection.

   ..Moore.. 05/06/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43270156 43800185 44460252 44730320 44880397 45120463
               45450479 45900438 46010400 46020325 45980226 45760154
               45200111 44560082 43950082 43540093 43280103 43220140

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