Mesoscale Discussion 0655
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Thu May 21 2020
Areas affected...eastern South Carolina into southern North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 211624Z - 211830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated damaging gust or perhaps a brief tornado
cannot be ruled out. Given the localized and brief nature of the
severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...An increase in convective coverage has been noted
across eastern SC into southern NC, in proximity to a warm front.
These storms are developing in a kinematic environment characterized
by weak tropospheric flow and resultant deep-layer shear, limiting
storm organization and longevity. Given ample low-level moisture
contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE throughout eastern SC into
southern NC, stronger storms bearing water-loaded downdrafts may
produce a couple damaging gusts. Latest VWPs also sample noticeable
low-level directional shear concentrated near the warm front (over
200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH at MHX, but well under 100 m2/s2 0-3km SRH at
LTX within the past hour). As such, any storms that manage to
organize and sustain themselves while crossing the warm front across
southern North Carolina may acquire transient low-level rotation,
perhaps supporting the potential for a brief tornado.
Nonetheless, the severe potential is expected to be quite sparse and
brief, precluding the need of a WW.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33437913 33507972 33848017 34418049 34898031 35117976
35517852 35517796 35347727 35007683 34837679 34427722