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Mesoscale Discussion 655
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MD 655 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0655
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1124 AM CDT Thu May 21 2020

   Areas affected...eastern South Carolina into southern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 211624Z - 211830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated damaging gust or perhaps a brief tornado
   cannot be ruled out. Given the localized and brief nature of the
   severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...An increase in convective coverage has been noted
   across eastern SC into southern NC, in proximity to a warm front.
   These storms are developing in a kinematic environment characterized
   by weak tropospheric flow and resultant deep-layer shear, limiting
   storm organization and longevity. Given ample low-level moisture
   contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE throughout eastern SC into
   southern NC, stronger storms bearing water-loaded downdrafts may
   produce a couple damaging gusts. Latest VWPs also sample noticeable
   low-level directional shear concentrated near the warm front (over
   200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH at MHX, but well under 100 m2/s2 0-3km SRH at
   LTX within the past hour). As such, any storms that manage to
   organize and sustain themselves while crossing the warm front across
   southern North Carolina may acquire transient low-level rotation,
   perhaps supporting the potential for a brief tornado. 

   Nonetheless, the severe potential is expected to be quite sparse and
   brief, precluding the need of a WW.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/21/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33437913 33507972 33848017 34418049 34898031 35117976
               35517852 35517796 35347727 35007683 34837679 34427722
               33767839 33437913 

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