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Mesoscale Discussion 659
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0659
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 AM CDT Thu Jun 07 2018

   Areas affected...Central KS...North-central OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 070658Z - 070830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and strong winds gusts will
   likely persist across central KS for the next several hours and a
   watch may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed rapidly along the eastern
   edge of the low-level jet over the past hour or so. In this area,
   steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to moderate to strong
   instability and warm-air advection is lifting parcels to their LFC.

   Additionally, southeastward progressing MCS moving through northwest
   KS has begun to interact with the newly developed warm-air advection
   storms. Expectation is for this storm interact to result in
   increased forward propagation into central KS and a higher
   probability for damaging wind gusts.

   Initially disorganized cluster across southwest KS has become
   increasingly more organized over the past hour. As a result, the
   reflectivity gradient along the leading edge has become
   significantly sharper as storms have increased in strength.
   Furthermore, recent velocity data from KDDC reveals strong westerly
   winds in the wake of the system, indicative of a strong rear-inflow
   jet. MCS strengthening and maintenance is anticipated as this system
   continues eastward across south-central KS. Some development
   southward into north-central OK is possible.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/07/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37890014 39780030 39959786 39179729 36359748 36980024
               37890014 

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Page last modified: June 07, 2018
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