Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 671
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 671 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0671
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 PM CDT Fri Jun 08 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern
   Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 081806Z - 081930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A localized threat for gusty winds and perhaps a brief
   tornado or two may exist this afternoon. Watch issuance is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...On the eastern edge of a mid-level impulse, modest
   large-scale ascent and weak surface confluence are focusing
   relatively shallow convection across eastern North Dakota early this
   afternoon. Although 700-500mb lapse rates are poor, ongoing surface
   heating/moistening is contributing to marginal MLCAPE (generally
   around 200-400 J/kg), and these values may rise to around 500-750
   J/kg over the next few hours. Development of a few multicells or
   even marginal supercell structures through late afternoon may yield
   a localized severe threat, characterized primarily by gusty winds
   given steepening low-level lapse rates. However, a brief tornado or
   two may also be possible, signaled by some clockwise hodograph
   curvature in the lowest 3 km in forecast soundings later this
   afternoon. Regardless, the overall severe threat is expected to be
   short-lived and isolated, precluding watch issuance. Any severe
   threat should diminish by mid evening.

   ..Picca/Grams.. 06/08/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47489848 47859824 48329745 48279667 47499639 46799648
               46419685 46359794 46409875 46599900 47079881 47489848 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 08, 2018
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities