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Mesoscale Discussion 671
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0671
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 PM CDT Fri Jun 08 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 081806Z - 081930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A localized threat for gusty winds and perhaps a brief
   tornado or two may exist this afternoon. Watch issuance is not

   DISCUSSION...On the eastern edge of a mid-level impulse, modest
   large-scale ascent and weak surface confluence are focusing
   relatively shallow convection across eastern North Dakota early this
   afternoon. Although 700-500mb lapse rates are poor, ongoing surface
   heating/moistening is contributing to marginal MLCAPE (generally
   around 200-400 J/kg), and these values may rise to around 500-750
   J/kg over the next few hours. Development of a few multicells or
   even marginal supercell structures through late afternoon may yield
   a localized severe threat, characterized primarily by gusty winds
   given steepening low-level lapse rates. However, a brief tornado or
   two may also be possible, signaled by some clockwise hodograph
   curvature in the lowest 3 km in forecast soundings later this
   afternoon. Regardless, the overall severe threat is expected to be
   short-lived and isolated, precluding watch issuance. Any severe
   threat should diminish by mid evening.

   ..Picca/Grams.. 06/08/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   47489848 47859824 48329745 48279667 47499639 46799648
               46419685 46359794 46409875 46599900 47079881 47489848 

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