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Mesoscale Discussion 675
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0675
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0716 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

   Areas affected...West-central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 230016Z - 230245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will be possible early this
   evening across west-central Texas. Large hail may occur but the
   threat is expected to be too localized for weather watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a 1002 mb low over the
   Low Rolling Plains with a dryline extending south-southwestward from
   the low into west Texas. At this time, low-level convergence is weak
   along the dryline but there is no cap in place. For this reason,
   isolated convective initiation will be possible along parts of the
   dryline this evening. Strong instability exists from near the
   dryline eastward into central Texas where MLCAPE is estimated in the
   2500 to 4000 J/kg range. The San Angelo WSR-88D VWP shows a
   relatively weak wind profile with estimated 0-6 km shear in the 20
   to 25 kt range. In spite of this, 700-500 mb lapse rates approach
   8.0 C/km according to the RAP suggesting any isolated supercell that
   can develop will produce large hail. Weather watch issuance will
   likely not be needed due to sparse cell coverage.

   ..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/23/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33010050 31520167 31020214 30740228 30320214 30220144
               31270011 32759947 33010050 

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