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Mesoscale Discussion 676
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0676
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0717 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

   Areas affected...eastern oklahoma and western Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 230017Z - 230115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have developed across portions of Oklahoma
   and Arkansas over the last hour. Conditions will be favorable for
   severe weather in the modified airmass behind previous convection. A
   watch is likely

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed likely in response to an
   increase in low-level warm advection to the north of a remnant
   outflow boundary across Oklahoma and Arkansas. 2000-3000 J/kg of
   MLCAPE and 40-50 kts effective shear will likely support supercells
   capable primarily of severe hail and wind for the next few hours.
   Low-level shear is strong enough, around 100-200 M2/s2, that a
   tornado or two cannot be ruled out in the moist enviornment.

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 05/23/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33949562 34389584 35069620 35489620 35899597 36049565
               36139464 35949399 35719353 35399318 35029300 34679296
               34249331 34169355 33949416 33849480 33889541 33949562 

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