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Mesoscale Discussion 677
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0677
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1248 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

   Areas affected...southern OH...eastern KY...and western WV

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071748Z - 071915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief tornado and locally damaging wind threat should
   persist into late afternoon with the remnants of an earlier MCS that
   may contain transient, weak supercell structures. Greater severe
   threat is expected later into the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Remnants of a largely decaying MCS/QLCS have persisted
   across southwest OH into eastern KY, supported by downstream
   boundary-layer heating with 17Z surface temperatures commonly in the
   mid to upper 70s. Amid a modest combination of mid-level lapse rates
   and deep-layer shear, convection has struggled to intensify as
   MLCAPE has increased to 500-1500 J/kg. Nevertheless, moderate
   low-level SRH (0-1 km of 100-150 m2/s2) should be adequate to
   support transient, lower-end updraft rotation within embedded
   updrafts that spread east amid the larger-scale decaying cluster. A
   more favorable environment for supercells is anticipated this
   evening in the wake of this afternoon convection.

   ..Grams/Smith.. 05/07/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39298401 39698344 39758287 39658210 39258175 38708171
               37828191 37418216 36968249 36578341 36588401 37228394

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