Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 684
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 684 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0684
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of northeastern WY...southeastern MT...and
   western SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092050Z - 092315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A very isolated large hail and strong/gusty wind threat
   may exist with thunderstorms developing eastward through this
   evening. A watch is not anticipated due to the marginal severe risk.

   DISCUSSION...Orographic lift along the Bighorn and Laramie Mountains
   along with ascent associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough
   over WY are encouraging isolated convection across northeastern WY
   per recent visible satellite and radar imagery. A moist low-level
   airmass characterized by upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints is present
   across northeastern WY and western SD. Strong surface heating and
   steep mid-level lapse rates combined with this moisture are
   resulting in MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg. The main limiting factor that
   will likely preclude a greater severe risk is weak mid-level winds,
   which should generally remain at or below 35 kt. Still, the moderate
   to strong instability and a veering wind profile may support
   occasional updraft organization. Very isolated instances of large
   hail and strong/gusty winds will be possible, but watch issuance is
   not expected.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 06/09/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   43650620 44510663 45390591 45610453 45390373 45070320
               43910281 43150340 42930436 42750535 43070597 43650620 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 09, 2018
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities