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Mesoscale Discussion 684
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0684
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of northeastern WY...southeastern MT...and
   western SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092050Z - 092315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A very isolated large hail and strong/gusty wind threat
   may exist with thunderstorms developing eastward through this
   evening. A watch is not anticipated due to the marginal severe risk.

   DISCUSSION...Orographic lift along the Bighorn and Laramie Mountains
   along with ascent associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough
   over WY are encouraging isolated convection across northeastern WY
   per recent visible satellite and radar imagery. A moist low-level
   airmass characterized by upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints is present
   across northeastern WY and western SD. Strong surface heating and
   steep mid-level lapse rates combined with this moisture are
   resulting in MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg. The main limiting factor that
   will likely preclude a greater severe risk is weak mid-level winds,
   which should generally remain at or below 35 kt. Still, the moderate
   to strong instability and a veering wind profile may support
   occasional updraft organization. Very isolated instances of large
   hail and strong/gusty winds will be possible, but watch issuance is
   not expected.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 06/09/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43650620 44510663 45390591 45610453 45390373 45070320
               43910281 43150340 42930436 42750535 43070597 43650620 

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