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Mesoscale Discussion 697
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0697
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0714 AM CDT Mon May 09 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of central MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 091214Z - 091345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms may continue to pose an isolated
   threat for large hail and strong/gusty winds. Watch issuance is
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...An elevated thunderstorm cluster has recently
   strengthened as it moved from eastern SD into southwestern MN. This
   convection is occurring on the nose of a 50-60+ kt southerly
   low-level jet, and a strong mid-level southwesterly jet is also
   present over this region. Related 50-70+ kt of effective bulk shear
   are proving very favorable for updraft organization, with clear
   evidence of a hail core aloft with this activity. Low-level moisture
   is also rapidly returning northward with the low-level jet, and
   MUCAPE has increased to around 1000-2000 J/kg downstream of the
   ongoing activity. However, based on current thunderstorm structure
   and radar presentation, it is less clear whether large amounts of
   marginally severe hail are being produced, or very large hail.
   Regardless, potential for isolated severe hail will likely persist
   with these elevated thunderstorms as they spread northeastward this
   morning across parts of central MN. Strong/gusty winds may also
   occur. Watch issuance is possible, especially if it becomes clear
   that additional severe thunderstorms will form in the warm advection
   regime.

   ..Gleason/Edwards.. 05/09/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44699598 45069635 45859640 46199572 46329482 46229355
               45989298 45679298 45139323 44889369 44589491 44639544
               44699598 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2022
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