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Mesoscale Discussion 698
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0698
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0916 AM CDT Mon May 09 2022

   Areas affected...central MN into northwest WI

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192...

   Valid 091416Z - 091515Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail will continue
   across parts of central Minnesota this morning. This activity may
   continue to pose a severe threat into parts of northwest Wisconsin
   over the next 2-3 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Fast moving, elevated severe thunderstorms continue to
   pose a threat for large hail this morning. This activity is quickly
   approaching the eastern edges of greater elevated instability on the
   nose of a strong low-level jet and warm advection regime. The 12z
   RAOB from MSP shows very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates and strong
   vertical shear, supporting continued organized cells capable of
   large hail. With northeastward extent a gradual weakening trend is
   expected. However, severe hail will continue to be possible across
   northeastern portions of WW 192 and may spread into a small portion
   of northwest WI over the next 2-3 hours before sufficient weaken
   below severe limits occurs. As a result, a small downstream watch
   will likely be needed soon.

   ..Leitman.. 05/09/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45749451 46179429 46379385 46459322 46499243 46489212
               46429183 46249134 45889101 45529089 45309103 45009148
               44889239 44909326 44969394 45069449 45749451 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2022
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