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Mesoscale Discussion 702
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0702
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0405 AM CDT Sun May 07 2023

   Areas of central Illinois

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194...

   Valid 070905Z - 071030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194

   SUMMARY...There appears at least some lingering potential for
   further intensification and organization of storms across central
   Illinois early this morning, which could lead to a period of
   increasing risk for strong surface gusts across and southeast of the
   Springfield and Mattoon vicinities prior to daybreak.  It is not
   clear that another severe weather watch will be needed, but trends
   will continue to be monitored for this possibility.

   DISCUSSION...Strongest convection has been maintained along/to the
   cool side of the low-level baroclinic zone trailing the forward
   propagating cluster now overspreading west central Indiana.  This is
   where the most unstable updraft inflow, albeit elevated, remains
   focused, supporting upscale growth into a linear band now west
   through southeast of Bloomington.  

   With southwesterly 850 mb flow forecast to maintain strength through
   daybreak before weakening, there may not be much change, with a
   gradual southeastward propagation of the stronger convection across
   central Illinois.  Although consolidating surface outflow had tended
   to surge out ahead of (to the south) of this activity, there still
   appears a window of opportunity for some further intensification and
   organization of convection which could lead to a period of
   increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.

   ..Kerr.. 05/07/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40158986 40048880 39868811 39698756 39368722 38858787
               38988828 39348928 39979021 40158986 

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