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Mesoscale Discussion 705
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0705
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1021 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

   Areas affected...south central North Dakota southward across central
   South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 110321Z - 110415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Limited severe risk may continue beyond the 04Z expiration
   of watches 170 and 171.  Need for a downstream WW is being
   considered.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a solid line of storms
   extending from southwest Manitoba into northern North Dakota, which
   has diminished in intensity over the past 1-2 hours.  With this
   convection moving through the axis of greatest instability at this
   time, a boundary layer that continues to cool/stabilize, and with
   flow aloft largely line-parallel, prospects for appreciable
   downstream severe risk appear low.

   Farther south across South Dakota, a more unstable environment
   persists.  In addition, storm mode remains more cellular -- in part
   due to a slightly more westerly flow component at mid levels.  With
   greater -- though still gradually diminishing -- severe risk evident
   in this area, the need for a new severe thunderstorm watch remains
   in question but is being considered.

   ..Goss.. 06/11/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43770068 44180102 45980036 46519955 46449885 45439861
               44449871 43739915 43680014 43770068 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2018
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