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Mesoscale Discussion 706
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0706
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0238 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

   Areas affected...Eastern NE...Far Western IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 111938Z - 112145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards,
   including tornadoes, are expected to begin developing within the
   next 2 hours. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus field continues to increases within the narrow
   warm sector across eastern NE, just ahead of an approaching cold
   front. Recent surface analysis places a low about 30 mi north of YKN
   in far southeast SD, with a cold front extending southwestward
   across eastern NE and into central KS. A warm front also extends
   southeastward from the low across far southwest IA and
   north-central/northwest MO. High-resolution visible satellite
   imagery also appears to reveal a southwestward progressing outflow
   boundary beneath the thicker clouds over far southeast SD.

   Warm-sector between these features is characterized by temperatures
   in the upper 80s, dewpoints in upper 60s/low 70s, and strong
   instability. Latest mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg
   with little, if any, convective inhibition remaining immediately
   ahead of the front. Consequently, continued convergence in this
   environment will likely lead to convective initiation within the
   next hour or so. Once this occurs, rapid thunderstorm development is
   anticipated with storms quickly becoming severe. Primary severe
   threat appears to be large hail, some of which could be greater than
   2 inches in diameter. Additionally, the favorable low-level shear
   may contribute to some increased tornado potential as well. Tall,
   water-loaded updrafts will also result in a threat for strong wind
   gusts. A watch will likely be needed across portions of the area to
   address this anticipated severe threat.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 06/11/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41289559 40419574 39979614 40079761 40569777 42139733
               42979720 43059661 42869590 42209555 41289559 

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