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Mesoscale Discussion 706
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0706
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0631 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021

   Areas affected...Southwestern Nebraska and far northwester Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195...

   Valid 222331Z - 230130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Additional storm development is possible along an outflow
   boundary in northwest KS/southwest Nebraska. Increase in MLCIN this
   evening makes that scenario uncertain. Storms are likely to move out
   of Colorado later this evening and post some threat for
   strong/damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado along the stationary
   boundary.

   DISCUSSION...Shear into southwestern Nebraska and northwestern
   Kansas is generally weaker in the warm sector than areas to the
   west. This has led to to a relatively disorganized storm mode.
   Furthermore, storms that were initially intense along the stationary
   boundary moved north and became elevated quickly. With this activity
   departed, an outflow boundary is evident in surface observations and
   visible satellite along the western NE/KS border. This area is
   likely the remaining focus for any additional storm development this
   evening. However, with capping beginning to increase, it is not
   certain this will occur. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
   perhaps a tornado would be possible with that activity.

   To the north and west, storms will not likely impact parts of the
   Nebraska Panhandle until 9-11 PM CDT as activity moves northeast out
   of Colorado. As this activity is expected to be more linear in mode,
   damaging wind gusts would likely be the primary threat. Given the
   presence of the boundary, a brief tornado could occur along and near
   it.

   ..Wendt.. 05/22/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39850215 40120227 40670242 41010280 41040321 41420346
               41690267 41430169 40540050 40070022 39510043 39490157
               39850215 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2021
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