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Mesoscale Discussion 707
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0707
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

   Areas affected...Central/North-central KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 112041Z - 112245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms may develop across north-central and
   central KS this afternoon. Trends are being monitored for possible
   watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows an increasing
   agitated cu field along and just ahead of the approaching cold
   front. Airmass south of the front is well-mixed with temperatures in
   the upper 90s/low 100s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This mixing has
   eroded much the convective inhibition and the expectation is for
   continued convergence along the cold front to result in eventual
   convective initiation. However, given the amount of dry mid-level
   air (sampled well by the 19Z TOP sounding), there is some question
   as to how long it will be before this initiation takes place.
   Additionally, convergence decreases with southern extent across KS,
   casting uncertainty regarding the occurrence of thunderstorms into
   central KS in the near-term. As a result, a conditional risk for
   severe hail and wind exists across north-central/central KS. Trends
   will be monitored for convective development and possible watch
   issuance.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 06/11/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38389716 38059764 37899809 37849847 38009882 38369890
               39089838 39659799 39939767 39919668 38869682 38389716 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2018
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