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Mesoscale Discussion 714
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0714
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

   Areas affected...Southwest KS...OK/TX Panhandles...Far Northeast NM

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 122017Z - 122215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms may develop within the next
   several hours. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low just east of GUY
   in the OK Panhandle. A stationary front extends northeastward from
   this low into northeast KS while a diffuse trough extends
   southwestward/westward back to another low near the Raton Mesa.
   Surface convergence is increasing east of this low (and attendant
   surface boundaries) across the northeast TX Panhandle and eastern OK
   Panhandle. This convergence is occurring amidst strong daytime
   heating and boundary-layer mixing, with surface temperatures across
   the region currently in the upper 90s/low 100s. Steep mid-level
   lapse rates atop these warm and moist conditions is resulting in
   strong instability (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg). Modest instability
   extends back west to the Raton Mesa, where storms are developing
   across the higher terrain.

   According to mesoanalysis and modified RAP soundings, heating and
   mixing has eroded any convective inhibition, evidenced by the
   increasingly agitated cumulus field across the area. Continued
   attempts at convective initiation are expected to eventually result
   in the development of a few thunderstorms, primarily across the
   eastern TX/OK Panhandles. Isolated large hail and/or strong
   downburst winds are the primary severe threat. 

   Uncertainty regarding severe storm coverage given modest deep-layer
   shear currently precludes higher watch probabilities but convective
   trends will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Nauslar/Grams.. 06/12/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37129937 37479946 37849995 37970052 37930073 37840092
               37630119 37130182 36970252 37090359 36430381 35760333
               35340213 34790092 34829980 36299937 37129937 

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